Developing adaptive forest management strategies for climate change for Serbia requires man-agement tools that are not currently available in the country, but which can be adapted to Serbia on the basis of recent developments in Germany. The focus will be on the economically most profitable two species in Serbia: a) European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) and b) Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) covering 351 000 ha and 32 000 ha (respectively) of the total forest area in Ser-bia. Although beech covers roughly 10 times more area, the wood of pedunculate oak wood is economically much more profitable. Both tree species are managed as high forests. For these two tree species, adaptive management will be developed for Serbia. The impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation under different climate scenarios will be simulated and evaluated economically.

The first step involves gathering the necessary data in the two defined forest regions in coopera-tion with WP 2 and WP 4 (activities 2.1, 3.1 & 4.1). In order to obtain the necessary growth mod-els, the WP 2 and WP 4 will work together at locating and covering all the sites with different yield potential, where the tree growth analysis will be conducted.

Additionally, stem discs from selected plots will be taken in cooperation with WP 2 and WP 4 in order to get forest growth data for the model validation. For a robust parametrization of the forest growth model, we will gather data for the leaf biomass submodel. For this purpose, the leaf area index (LAI) and the leaf morphology (leaf mass per area - LMA) have to be quantified in the field. Overall, UNIQUE will lead the collection, checks and preparation of the spatial data-bases.

The existing climate-sensitive forest growth model GOTILWA+ will be adapted for Serbian condi-tions (activity 3.2). The available data sets will serve as a basis for parameterizing, calibrating, and validating GOTILWA+ on the yield maps/productivity maps for selected management types. The model will be tested (activity 3.3) and improved/corrected locally with Serbian help aiming at creating a simulation with a current, business-as-usual management (BAU). In the following, climate change scenarios for Serbia will be applied to BAU (activity 3.4) for the parameterized tree species and potential effects on growth, productivity and mortality analysed.

The output of the simulator for the different silvicultural strategies and tree species will then be evaluated economically. Therefore, the output of harvested and standing timber must be catego-rized in diameter classes and then assessed with local/regional prices and costs. For this purpose, existing sorting algorithms with prices/costs from a previous cooperation project will be used and updated during the stay (activity 3.3) in project year 2. In addition, economic parameters such as NPVs, annuities and land expectation values for the different tree species as well as op-timization algorithms will be calculated (activity 3.5). In addition to standard optimization ap-proaches, this project will also use "robust" decision methods that are able to handle "worst case" scenarios.

With the help of the most important stakeholders and building on the results of various projects, silvicultural strategies for the main tree species in Serbia are implemented in the simulator. WP 1 will support the initiation and implementation of the stakeholder inputs in the form of workshops and surveys.

Emphasis will be placed on the development of adaptation strategies to climate change, i.e. strategies designed to increase the resilience of Serbia's forests. A variety of simulation runs will be carried out under a range of climate scenarios and optimized taking into account the ecosys-tem services of wood production, carbon storage and biodiversity.

- Chair of Forest Economics and Forest Planning University of Freiburg

- Chair of Forest Economics and Forest Planning University of Freiburg

- Chair of forest management planning, Faculty of Forestry University of Belgrade

Model scheme